SAMPLE REPORT — the complete certified Head-to-Head, exactly as delivered.
THE HEAD-TO-HEAD REPORT
KARABAN vs JOHNSON · 2025-26 · CERTIFIED
THE HEAD-TO-HEAD · ONE CERTIFIED SCALE
PREPARED FOR THE STAFF · JULY 2026

Karaban vs Johnson

Two title-game opponents. Nearly identical scoring. One certified scale settles it.
THE SHOOTER
Alex Karaban
UConn · SF/PF · 6'8" · r-Sr
Big East · No. 29 · Sacramento
+669
CERTIFIED SEASON PBiR · +16.7/GM
vs
THE FINISHER
Morez Johnson Jr.
Michigan · PF/C · 6'9" · So
Big Ten · No. 9 · Dallas
+996
CERTIFIED SEASON PBiR · +26.2/GM

Dear Coach,

These two met in the national championship — Johnson’s Michigan over Karaban’s UConn, 69-63. On the box score they’re twins: 13.2 and 13.0 a game. The draft split them anyway, nine to twenty-nine. This report asks the only question that matters to a staff: graded on the exact same possession scale, who actually produced more — and why?

Both full seasons, every game certified against the official box. No reputation, no draft slot, no highlight reel — just what each man did, possession by possession, on one yardstick.

Read page 2 first. The number isn’t close.

Sincerely,

Herman Johnson Jr.

Founder · The Possession Report, powered by PBiR

CERTIFIED PBiR DATA SCORE
100
78 games certified across both seasons — every withheld game listed on the ledger.
thepossessionreport.com · The facts don’t lie.
100
CERTIFIED PBiR DATA SCORE
Page 1 of 8
THE HEAD-TO-HEAD REPORT
KARABAN vs JOHNSON · 2025-26 · CERTIFIED
PART 1 · THE VERDICT
TWO SEASONS, ONE YARDSTICK
THE CERTIFIED COMPARISON — READ THIS PAGE FIRST

Same Scoring. Not the Same Player. — the engine settles what the box score blurs

Every metric below is certified from both full 2025-26 seasons on one identical scale. Green marks the stronger certified result in each row.
CERTIFIED METRICKARABAN (UConn)JOHNSON (Michigan)
Certified record40/4038/40
Season PBiR+669+996
Per game+16.7+26.2
Per minute+0.49+1.05
Led his team710
Negative games20
High / Low+38 / -7+52 / +1
Box — pts / reb / ast13.2 / 5.3 / 2.413.0 / 7.0 / 1.3
THE GAP IN IMPACT
+327
more certified for Johnson
PER-MINUTE EDGE
2.1×
Johnson’s rate vs Karaban’s
FLOOR
0 vs 2
negative games — Johnson never cracked
THE LINE THAT SETTLES IT
They scored the same. Johnson produced twice as much per minute — and the draft agreed.
thepossessionreport.com · The facts don’t lie.
100
CERTIFIED PBiR DATA SCORE · OFFICIAL BOX & PLAY-BY-PLAY · TWO CERTIFIED SEASONS
Page 2 of 8
THE HEAD-TO-HEAD REPORT
KARABAN vs JOHNSON · 2025-26 · CERTIFIED
THE SEPARATION — WHERE THE GAP COMES FROM

The Lead That Never Stopped Building — one ran away on the possession scale

Plot each man’s certified impact as a running total, game by game. The lines start together and never reconverge — Johnson’s slope is steeper from the opening week to the title game.
+0+250+500+750+1000 +996+669 GAME-BY-GAME RUNNING TOTAL OF CERTIFIED IMPACT →
▬ Karaban    ▬ Johnson
THE RATE GAP, TWO WAYS
CERTIFIED IMPACT PER GAME
Karaban
+16.7
Johnson
+26.2
CERTIFIED IMPACT PER MINUTE
Karaban
+0.49
Johnson
+1.05
The Read: per game Johnson leads by more than nine; per minute he nearly doubles Karaban. A shooter’s night is a handful of high-value events; a rim-running rebounder’s night is a steady stream of them — and the engine counts every one.
thepossessionreport.com · The facts don’t lie.
100
CERTIFIED PBiR DATA SCORE · OFFICIAL BOX & PLAY-BY-PLAY · TWO CERTIFIED SEASONS
Page 3 of 8
THE HEAD-TO-HEAD REPORT
KARABAN vs JOHNSON · 2025-26 · CERTIFIED
PART 2 · THE PLAYERS
ONE CERTIFIED PAGE EACH
THE SHOOTER · ALEX KARABAN — UCONN · SF/PF · 6'8"

Alex Karaban — First-Team All-Big East · 2× national champion

CERTIFIED SEASON
+669
+16.7/gm · +0.49/min
NEGATIVE GAMES
2
of 40 certified
LED HIS TEAM
7
hi +38 / lo -7
THE LINE
13.2/5.3
pts / reb per game
THE SEASON, GAME BY GAME
SHOT MAP — ● MADE  ○ MISSED
ARCHETYPE
Floor-spacing connector — elite shooter (37% on 5+ threes a game), high-IQ, low-mistake.
SHOT DIET
199 inside the arc · 206 from three
THE IDENTITY — WHAT BUILT THE NUMBER
Made 2s 111
Made 3s 77
Off reb 72
Def reb 139
Assists 94
Drawn 48
Blocks 33
Steals 33
TOs 43
THE CERTIFIED VERDICT
The certified read says Karaban is exactly what the tape says: a high-efficiency floor-spacer who rarely hurts you (just two negative games) and lifts a title contender — but whose possession volume sits below a featured big, because a shooter generates fewer graded events by design.
For the staff: Use him as your spacing and connective hub; his value is the gravity and the clean decisions, not raw possession count.
thepossessionreport.com · The facts don’t lie.
100
CERTIFIED PBiR DATA SCORE · OFFICIAL BOX & PLAY-BY-PLAY · TWO CERTIFIED SEASONS
Page 4 of 8
THE HEAD-TO-HEAD REPORT
KARABAN vs JOHNSON · 2025-26 · CERTIFIED
THE FINISHER · MOREZ JOHNSON JR. — MICHIGAN · PF/C · 6'9"

Morez Johnson Jr. — All-Big Ten Defense · 2026 national champion · 62% FG

CERTIFIED SEASON
+996
+26.2/gm · +1.05/min
NEGATIVE GAMES
0
of 38 certified
LED HIS TEAM
10
hi +52 / lo +1
THE LINE
13.0/7.0
pts / reb per game
THE SEASON, GAME BY GAME
SHOT MAP — ● MADE  ○ MISSED
ARCHETYPE
Interior force — elite offensive rebounder, rim finisher and rim protector.
SHOT DIET
254 inside the arc · 34 from three
THE IDENTITY — WHAT BUILT THE NUMBER
Made 2s 171
Made 3s 12
Off reb 89
Def reb 176
Assists 48
Drawn 93
Blocks 43
Steals 25
TOs 52
THE CERTIFIED VERDICT
The certified read says Johnson is a possession engine: zero negative games, led Michigan ten times, and more than a point of impact every minute he played. Offensive rebounds, rim finishes, and blocks are the events the engine rewards most — and he posts them in bulk.
For the staff: Feed him on the glass and at the rim; the floor never cracks and the per-minute rate is elite. This is a build-around motor.
thepossessionreport.com · The facts don’t lie.
100
CERTIFIED PBiR DATA SCORE · OFFICIAL BOX & PLAY-BY-PLAY · TWO CERTIFIED SEASONS
Page 5 of 8
THE HEAD-TO-HEAD REPORT
KARABAN vs JOHNSON · 2025-26 · CERTIFIED
FLOOR TO CEILING — WORST NIGHT TO BEST

Who You Can Trust When It’s Even — the floor is the whole difference

Each bar runs from a player’s worst certified game to his best; the tick is his average, red is below zero. Karaban dipped twice; Johnson’s worst night all season was still positive.
FLOOR · AVG · CEIL
Karaban
UConn
-7  +16.7  +38
Johnson
Michigan
+1  +26.2  +52
EACH MAN'S WORST CERTIFIED NIGHT
Karaban’s floor game — -7
a cold shooting night — the engine docks the misses, not the player
Johnson’s floor game — +1
the worst night of his championship season was still a plus
KARABAN'S FLOOR
-7
2 negative games all year
JOHNSON'S FLOOR
+1
never graded negative — not once
CEILING
52 vs 38
Johnson’s best vs Karaban’s
The Read: a rebuilt rotation can absorb a cold shooting night; it can’t absorb a hole. Karaban’s floor is good — two dips in forty. Johnson’s is rarer than that: a full championship season without a single negative possession game. When the margin is one possession, that floor is the asset.
thepossessionreport.com · The facts don’t lie.
100
CERTIFIED PBiR DATA SCORE · OFFICIAL BOX & PLAY-BY-PLAY · TWO CERTIFIED SEASONS
Page 6 of 8
THE HEAD-TO-HEAD REPORT
KARABAN vs JOHNSON · 2025-26 · CERTIFIED
THE HONEST READ — WHAT THE NUMBER DOES AND DOESN'T SAY

Two Archetypes, Fairly Judged — the gap is real — and so is the context

THE QUESTIONWHAT THE ENGINE FOUNDTHE HONEST CONTEXT
Who produced more?Johnson, clearly — +996 to +669, nearly 2× per minute, zero negative gamesTrue on every possession metric. The draft (No. 9 vs No. 29) ranks them the same way.
Is Karaban’s number low?Lower volume — a shooter generates fewer graded events than a rim-runnerThe engine counts events; it under-credits gravity — the threes that bend a defense and free teammates without logging a rebound or block.
So who do you want?Different jobs: Johnson is the engine, Karaban is the spacing and the IQIf you need rim pressure and a floor, Johnson. If you need to space a star and never beat yourself, Karaban. The number isn’t a draft board — it’s a fit tool.
THE ONE-LINE READ
Same scoreboard line. Two different jobs. The possessions tell you which one fits yours.
Why this report exists: a draft slot is a market opinion; a possession grade is a measurement. We give you the measurement, name what it can’t see, and let you make the call. Information only. You make the call.
thepossessionreport.com · The facts don’t lie.
100
CERTIFIED PBiR DATA SCORE · INFORMATION ONLY · YOU MAKE THE CALL
Page 7 of 8
THE HEAD-TO-HEAD REPORT
KARABAN vs JOHNSON · 2025-26 · CERTIFIED
THE CLOSING PAGE · THE CERTIFICATION LEDGER

Everything Reconciled — two seasons, one standard

Every number in this report comes only from games that passed full certification — box reconcile, points tie, shot profile — against the official record. Games that did not pass are counted below and excluded, never blended in.
PLAYERCERTIFIEDGAMES PLAYEDWITHHELD
Alex Karaban (UConn)40/4040—
Morez Johnson Jr. (Michigan)38/40382
Johnson’s withheld games (feed/box mismatches, excluded never blended): 2026-01-15 vs WASH · 2026-02-08 vs OSU.
THE MATCHUP, BY THE NUMBERS
KARABAN
+669
certified impact
JOHNSON
+996
certified impact
THE GAP
+327
possessions apart
CERTIFIED
78
games, two seasons
The bottom line: the box score said these two were the same player. The possessions said one produced half again as much, with a floor that never cracked — and the league’s own draft board agreed. That’s the difference between watching the scoreboard and grading the game.
Built entirely from official box scores and play-by-play. Not affiliated with or endorsed by the NCAA or any school. All marks belong to their respective owners.
thepossessionreport.com · The facts don’t lie.
100
CERTIFIED PBiR DATA SCORE · ALL FINDINGS FROM CERTIFIED GAMES ONLY
Page 8 of 8